The Last 12 Months: The Power of China’s Great Recession and Implications for the U.S.-led Energy Policy

Just 12 months ago, China’s economy was growing too fast for its energy sector to keep up. Blackouts darkened vast factory districts. An electrical fire caused the Office high-rises to lose electricity for elevators. Municipal water systems stopped pumping for lack of power.

China is facing the reverse today. Growth has slowed so rapidly that tens of millions of young people are without jobs and businesses teeter at the brink of bankruptcy.

And as the economy skids, China is importing far less energy — almost two million barrels of oil a day less than expected in August, and one-sixth less natural gas than a year earlier.

The sharp decline in demand by China, the world’s second-largest economy, is helping slow price rises sparked by Russian’s invasion of Ukraine. China’s slump in energy consumption is also offering an unintended assist to the U.S.-led efforts to choke off the enormous revenues Russia reaps as an energy exporter.

Putin’s Last Stand Against the Cold War: The Case of the Ugly Russian Invasion of the Donetsk Region

Peter Bergen is an analyst at CNN, a vice president at New America, and a professor at Arizona State University. Bergen is the author of “The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World.” The views expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion on it.

The Russian leader did not give any indication of how the fighting would end or even what Russia’s ultimate goals would be.

The timing couldn’t have been worse. Just as he was declaring that Russia had captured the Donetsk region, Putin lost his friend and ally.

Putin still believes that Russia can ‘out-suffer’ the Ukrainians, Europeans, and Americans in the same way that Russians out-suffered Napoleon’s army and Hitler’s Nazis.

With his allies expressing concern, and hundreds of millions of citizens fleeing full deployment, an increasingly isolated Putin has taken to making short speeches that offer a distorted view of history.

He states that the rationale for the war in Ukraine is because it has historically always been part of Russia, even though the country gained independence from the Soviet Union more than three decades ago.

When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, they planned to install a puppet government and get out of the country as soon as it was feasible, as explained in a recent, authoritative book about the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, “Afghan Crucible” by historian Elisabeth Leake.

While the US supported the Afghan resistance during the war against the Soviets, it initially didn’t go far enough, fearing a bigger war with the Soviet Union. It took until 1986 for the CIA to arm the Afghans with highly effective anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, which ended the Soviets’ total air superiority, eventually forcing them to withdraw from Afghanistan three years later.

The person is Petraeus. I think we should recognize that, with a few exceptions, Ukraine is not the future of warfare. In large measure, it is what we would have seen had the Cold War turned hot in the mid-1980s – with largely Cold War weapons systems (albeit with some modernization).

But the US put those fears to rest relatively quickly, and American-supplied anti-tank Javelin missiles and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), GPS-guided missiles, have helped the Ukrainians to push back against the Russians.

The Crimes of Czar Nicholas II: Putin, the Russo-Japanese Revolution, and the Crime against Human Rights

Putin is also surely aware that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was hastened by the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan two years earlier.

The loss of the Russian empire in the Russo-Japanese war in 1905 weakened the Romanov monarchy. Czar Nicholas II’s feckless leadership during the First World War then precipitated the Russian Revolution in 1917. The Romanov family was killed by a Bolshevik firing squad.

The economy of the country is on a decline. And they will force Putin to choose between ramping up military spending and investing in social goods like housing and education — a decision that could have consequences both for the war and the Russian public’s support of it.

Putin is a tragic example of how delusions and illusions can be allowed by one person to shape events without challenge. They are able to command their subordinates to follow foolish orders because autocrats put their cronies into key positions.

The world would be plunged into a new era of instability, with less freedom, less peace and less prosperity, if Putin’s war is allowed to go ahead.

According to officials, missiles, rockets and drones have struck dozens of locations across Ukraine since Monday, targeting civilian infrastructures in major cities, such as Kyiv that are hundreds of miles from the front lines in the east and south.

The attacks snatched away the semblance of normality that city dwellers, who spent months earlier in the war in subways turned into air raid shelters, have managed to restore to their lives and raised fears of new strikes.

What do we really need to know about Russia’s war crimes against Ukraine and what will we do about it? A US National Security Adviser

The message was obvious for the world to see. Putin isn’t going to be humiliated. He will not admit defeat. And he is quite prepared to inflict civilian carnage and indiscriminate terror in response to his string of battlefield reversals.

The targets on Monday had little military value and were meant to signal the need to find new targets for Putin because he was unable to win battles in his home country.

The bombing of power installations, in particular, Monday appeared to be an unsubtle hint of the misery the Russian President could inflict as winter sets in, even as his forces retreat in the face of Ukrainian troops using Western arms.

Ukraine has become the epicenter of a global conflict; a hub whose spokes connect to every country, every life. Living standards have been adversely affected by the Russian aggression including weaponization of hunger, Iranian drones, and civilian targets.

President Joe Biden Monday spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and offered advanced air systems that would help defend against Russian air attacks, but the White House did not specify exactly what might be sent.

The National Security Council is led by John Kirby who suggests the United States looks favorably on the requests made by the Ukrainian government. He told CNN that they do the best they can in subsequent packages to meet those needs.

Kirby couldn’t say whether Putin was shifting his strategy from a losing battlefield war to a campaign to cripple civilians and cause devastating damage to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, though he claimed it was a trend that had been in the works for a while.

“It likely was something that they had been planning for quite some time. Kirby said that the explosion on the bridge might have accelerated some of their planning.

The new top commander of the invasion was appointed in response to the growing setbacks. But there is little sign that Gen. Sergey Surovikin can lead his forces back onto the front foot before the end of the year, given the pace and cost of the Ukrainian counter-offensives.

The leaders of the US and other western nations should convey to Putin clearly and repeatedly that the use of nuclear weapons in his country would be catastrophic, according to a US National Security Adviser.

The president of France had raised concerns about the possibility of another pivot in the conflict.

He told me where he’s going as we get into the winter. Vindman said that he was going to try to force the Ukrainian population to compromise and give up territory by going after the infrastructure.

Russia launched a wave of air strikes on civilian infrastructure in the hopes of trapping Ukraine in the cold winter months. The bombing campaign has made life miserable in Ukranian but no one seems to be backing down.

If we have modern equipment, we could raise the number of drones downed and not kill innocent civilians or hurt Ukrainians.

Any prolonged campaign by Putin against civilians would be aimed at breaking Ukrainian morale and possibly unleashing a new flood of refugees into Western Europe that might open divisions among NATO allies that are supporting Ukraine.

The lesson of the horrible war is that everything that Putin has done to break the nation he does not believe has the right to exist has strengthened it.

Olena Gnes told CNN that she was angry at the Russians for coming back to violence against Ukrainians from a previous round of terror.

“This is just another terror to provoke maybe panic, to scare you guys in other countries or to show to his own people that he is still a bloody tyrant, he is still powerful and look what fireworks we can arrange,” she said.

We don’t feel bad because we know that after this war ends and Russia is defeated, we will have peace again.

For a long time, Russia’s state media has maintained that the country was only hitting military targets in Ukraine, leaving out the suffering of the millions of civilians.

State television flaunted the suffering as it reported it on Monday. There was a long run forecast showing months of freezing temperatures in central Kyiv, along with empty store shelves.

“In principle, it is clear-cut: Russia must pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine,” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said. “At the same time, this poses difficult questions. There is currently no direct model for this to be done in accordance with EU and international law.

The images captured hundreds of cargo trucks backed up and waiting to cross from Crimea into Russia by ferry, some five days after the bombing. There is a big backup at a port in Kerch, and a line of trucks away at an airport, which is being used as a staging area.

Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russia analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the long lines for the ferry crossing had been exacerbated by security checkpoints set up after the bridge explosion.

Observing the Russian Counterattack on the Kerch Bridge — The Third, Fourth, and Fifth War Ukraine has Been Observed

The sound of the air raid sirens and the roar of Russian attacks shattered the calm in Ukrainian cities far from the country’s battlefields.

Beyond the reality of living through war inside Ukraine, people around the world have felt the knock-on effect of the conflict as inflation and energy prices spike. It’s also raised the specter of another possible invasion by a different global power.

The war is in a new phase, which is not the same as before. Keir Giles is a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House and he said that this is the third, fourth, or fifth war they have been observing.

Some background: The reference to the bridge pertains to an explosion that took place on the Kerch bridge — which connects Crimea to Russia — on Oct. 8, when a truck crossing it exploded and caused it to be partially destroyed. The Ukrainians have never claimed responsibility, but the Kremlin was quick to point fingers toward Kyiv. Putin said that acts of terrorism on the territory of Russia would be harsh. Last week, Putin appeared on the bridge while he was shown repairs, and then he drove a car across it.

Giles said that anything that could be described as a victory by the Ukranians was now more plausible. “The response from Russia is likely to escalate further.”

In the southern Kherson region last month, Ukrainian troops hoisted the country’s flag over a building. Since the counter-offensive began, Ukrainian officials say they’ve liberated hundreds of settlements.

Russia said Thursday its forces would help evacuate residents of occupied Kherson to other areas, as Ukraine’s offensive continued to make gains in the region. The head of the Moscow-backed administration in Kherson appealed to the Kremlin for help moving residents out of harm’s way, the latest indication that Russian forces were struggling in the face of Ukrainian advances.

These counter-offensives have shifted the momentum of the war and disproved a suggestion, built up in the West and in Russia during the summer, that while Ukraine could stoutly defend territory, it lacked the ability to seize ground.

The Russians are trying to avoid a collapse in their frontline before winter sets in, said the senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

If they get to Christmas with the frontline looking the same, that will be a huge success for the Russians.

Russia is massing replacement soldiers and additional units to launch an offensive to take portions of the southeast of the country that they do not control, while establishing defensive positions in other areas that they control in the south.

Landing a major blow in Donbas would send another powerful signal, and Ukraine will be eager to improve on its gains before temperatures plummet on the battlefield, and the full impact of rising energy prices is felt around Europe.

The country of Ukraine has been facing an assault on critical infrastructure and power sources. The onslaught has left millions across the country facing power cuts amid freezing temperatures.

The international community will continue to support Ukraine until Russian President Putin ends his war of choice, as was stated by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Milley in a press conference on Tuesday.

Russia is struggling on the ground and has failed to achieve supremacy in the air, but Monday’s attacks may have achieved one goal – sending a signal of strength towards the growing list of Putin’s internal critics.

Repairs to infrastructure facilities across Ukraine are still ongoing. Most power plants are now supplying energy to the national grid after they were temporarily shut down in late November when Moscow sent a barrage of missiles to target energy “generation facilities,” Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s state-run energy operator, said.

The Russian Army is Running Out: Counterattacks on Ukraine and the reopening of a northern front by Russian missiles and drones

Experts believe it remains unlikely that Russia’s aerial bombardment will form a recurrent pattern; while estimating the military reserves of either army is a murky endeavor, Western assessments suggest Moscow may not have the capacity to keep it up.

A rare speech by the UK’s spy chief on Tuesday said that Russian commanders know that their supplies are running out.

“Russia’s use of its limited supply of precision weapons in this role may deprive Putin of options to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives,” the ISW assessed.

Justin Bronk, a military expert with the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), agreed with that assessment, telling CNN that, “Ukrainian interception success rates against Russian cruise missiles have risen significantly since the start of the invasion in February.”

The barrage of missiles strikes is a feature that will occasionally be shown of anger, because the Russians don’t have the weapons to sustain that type of assault into the future.

Any further Belarusian involvement in the war could also have a psychological impact, Puri suggested. He said that everyone in the West has a tendency to focus on fighting one army. They said that it would play into Putin’s theory that the war is about restoring the lands of ancient Rus states.

Giles thinks that the reopening of a northern front will be a new challenge for Ukraine. It would give Russia a new road into the region that has been reclaimed by the Ukrainians, he said.

Now Zelensky will hope for more supplies in the short-term as he seeks to drive home those gains. The leader has sought to highlight Ukraine’s success in intercepting Russian missiles, saying more than half of the missiles and drones launched at Ukraine in a second wave of strikes on Tuesday were brought down.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that Ukraine needed “more” systems to better halt missile attacks, ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.

The IRIS-T that arrived this week from Germany is one of the badly needed modern systems that will arrive in the United States. , Bronk said.

In the past two months, Ukraine’s power grid has come under relentless bombardment by Russian bombs, taking down as much as half of the country’s electric infrastructure and at times leaving the majority of the country without power. Ukrainians in the west of the fighting in the region known as the Donbas are less able to rely on generators, food outside and backups for water and electricity because of the distance. Water supplies have been cut off at times, along with some portions of the country’s rail system. And winter, with only a fraction of the country’s heating systems operational, still looms ahead.

A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen: Donald Trump, the European Commission, and Russia

The author of A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars that Might Still Happen is a contributor to CNN. He formerly was a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. You can get more opinion at CNN.

He wants to distract his nation from what is obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield, and failures to achieve even the scaled back objectives of his invasion.

In short, there is every incentive for Putin to prolong the conflict as long as possible to allow many of these forces in the West to kick in. There is a chance that a long, cold winter in Europe and persistently higher interest rates will cause leaders to dial back financial and military support.

This ability to keep going is dependent on a host of variables, ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter to the popular will across a broad range of nations.

European Union powers agreed to a plan to control energy prices in the early hours of Friday morning after Russia and the Kremlin had cut natural gas supplies.

There is an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, and permission for EU gas companies to create a group to buy gas on international markets.

After leaving the summit, which he described as having maintained European unity, the French President said that the European Commission only had a clear mandate to start working on a gas cap mechanism.

Still, divisions remain, with Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, skeptical of any price caps. Energy ministers have to work with Germany on the details of caps that would encourage higher consumption.

These divisions are all part of Putin’s fondest dream. Manifold forces in Europe could prove central to achieving success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, which amounts to the continent failing to agree on essentials.

France and Germany were at odds on many of these issues. Though in an effort to reach some accommodation, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have scheduled a conference call for Wednesday.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

The Italian New Prime Minister: After Years of War in the Cold War, Russia is Trying to Get Out of the Embarrassment

There is a new government in Italy. Giorgia Meloni was sworn in Saturday as Italy’s first woman prime minister and has attempted to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her partners has a deep appreciation for Putin.

At a gathering of the party loyalists, Berlusconi mentioned that Putin had sent 20 bottles of booze to him while he was 86 years old.

The other leading member of the ruling Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, named Saturday as deputy prime minister, said during the campaign, “I would not want the sanctions [on Russia] to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”

At the same time, Poland and Hungary, longtime ultra-right-wing soulmates united against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence, have now disagreed over Ukraine. Poland was upset by the pro-Putin attitude of Hungary’s Orban.

Kevin McCarthy, poised to be Speaker of the House if Republicans win control after next month’s elections, told an interviewer, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check.” They will not do it.

The Congressional progressive caucus on Monday called on Vice President Biden to start talks with Russia if they wanted to end the conflicts in the country while Russian troops are still occupying vast parts of the country.

Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Dmytro Kuleba to discuss renewing America’s support.

Last week, Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz introduced a bill to end US support for Ukraine, a measure supported by a handful of far-right lawmakers including Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar. GOP sources, however, have told CNN that it’s only a small group of Republican lawmakers who are against funding aid to Ukraine.

Lloyd Austin said they will deliver support to Ukraineagain with unity and urgentness. “We will put capabilities into the hands of trained Ukrainian forces so that they can be integrated together on the battlefield.”

“We are weakening Russia’s ability to keep its war machinery in place,” von der Leyen said in remarks to the European Parliament. “We have adopted nine packages of sanctions. The Russian economy is shrinking. We have to keep up the pressure.

Russian production of hypersonic missiles stopped due to lack of necessary semi-conductors, said the report. Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks as it can no longer spare spare parts for aircraft and plants that produce anti-aircraft systems have shut down. The era of the Soviets ended 30 years ago.

All property of a top Russian procurement agent and his agencies was seized by the US a day before this report.

The Justice Department announced charges against people and companies who are trying to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia.

What Do We Need to Know About the Russia-Ukraine War and How Does It End? A World Affairs Perspective on the Case of the Second World War

Still, there remain hardliners like Pavel Gubarev, Russia’s puppet leader in Donetsk, who voiced his real intention toward Ukrainians: “We aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We are going to kill as many as we need to, or we are going to kill all of you.

Editor’s Note: Frida Ghitis, (@fridaghitis) a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, columnist for the Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.

Iran acknowledged for the first time providing some drones to Russia months before the war in Ukraine but denied continuing to supply them, on Nov. 5. Zelenskyy countered that Iran was “lying” because Ukrainian forces “shoot down at least 10 Iranian drones every day.”

Russia and Iran have a stronger relationship which has drawn attention to Iran’s enemies in the Middle East, NATO members and nations that want to restore the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which was supposed to delay Iran’s ability to build an atomic bomb.

Everyone is being affected by the war in Ukraine. Fuel prices have gone up as a result of the conflict.

Since the Second World War most nations have come to reject invasions of one country by another, but Yuval Noah Harari argues that a victory by Russia would open the door to war because it would show the nation that it is alright to attack other countries.

Much of what happens today far from the battlefields still has repercussions there. When oil-producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, decided last month to slash production, the US accused the Saudis of helping Russia fund the war by boosting its oil revenues. (An accusation the Saudis deny).

Separately, weapons supplies to Ukraine have become a point of tension with Israel, which has developed highly effective defense systems against incoming missiles. Ukraine has asked Israel to provide those systems, including the Iron Dome and David’s Sling, but Israel refuses, citing its own strategic concerns.

Ukraine and Russia are key exporters of wheat, barley, corn and cooking oil, particularly to African and Middle Eastern countries. Turkey and the United Nations brokered a deal last summer to allow Ukrainian grain to pass through Black Sea ports, but Russia is reportedly still hindering shipments. Russia is a major producer of some of the products listed. Disruptions to the flow of these goods are compounding other supply chain and climate challenges, driving up food and gas prices and causing shortages in places such as Chad, Tunisia and Sri Lanka.

U.N. Security Assistance to Ukraine After the November 2 Russian-Brazil War: State of Ukraine at NPR’s Radio Pulse

Higher prices not only affect family budgets and individual lives. When they come with such powerful momentum, they pack a political punch. In many countries, political leaders are being attacked because of inflation worsened by the war.

And it’s not all on the fringes. McCarthy suggested that the GOP might reduce aid toUkraine after next week’s elections. The letters calling for negotiations were released by the Progressives. Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official during the Obama administration, said that they are all bringing a big smile to Putin.

The results of the American election this week will be watched closely by Ukraine, especially after some Republicans warned that they could limit funding for the country if it wins control of the House of Representatives.

The Turkish President is going to host the Swedish Prime Minister on Tuesday. Erdogan insists Sweden must meet certain conditions before it can join NATO.

The General Assembly is expected to discuss an I Atomic Energy Agency report on Wednesday, which could include a discussion of Ukraine.

Russia rejoined a U.N.-brokered deal to safely export grain and other agricultural goods from Ukraine, on Nov. 2. The deal had been suspended by Moscow because of the attack on the Black Sea ships.

The $400 million in additional security aid to Ukraine was announced by the Pentagon.

You can read past recaps here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. You can listen and subscribe to NPR’s State of Ukraine for daily updates.

Putin’s “Heroes of Russia” lecture on alleged aggressions: “What is not supplying water to Donetsk?”

Speaking after an awards ceremony for “Heroes of Russia” at the Kremlin, he addressed a group of soldiers receiving the awards, clutching a glass of champagne.

At the awards ceremony, Putin continued to list alleged aggressions: “Who is not supplying water to Donetsk? It’s an act of genocide to not supply water to a million people.

The reference to Kursk appears to reference Russia’s announcement that an airfield in the Kursk region, which neighbors Ukraine, was targeted in a drone attack. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has offered no comment on recent explosions, including in Kursk, which are deep within Russia. Officially, the targets are well beyond the reach of the country’s declared drones.

Putin vs. Putin: Does it rain or is it raining on Ukraine? The Russian military attacks on the Kerch Bridge and the energy infrastructure of eastern Ukraine

He ended his apparent off-the-cuff comments by claiming there is no mention of the water situation. “No one has said a word about it anywhere. At all! Absolutely no sound. He said something like that.

Local Russian authorities in the region of eastern Russia claimed this week to have been the scene of frequent shelling.

President Vladimir Putin made rare public comments specifically addressing the Russian military’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure Thursday, while clutching a glass of champagne at a Kremlin reception.

In the days following the bridge explosion, Putin said, “further acts of terrorism on the territory of Russia will be harsh… have no doubt about that.”

Last week Putin appeared on the Kerch Bridge, where he was shown repairs and drove a car across the structure that he himself officially opened in 2018.

He asked in his Kremlin appearance who was not supplying the water to the city of Donetsk. Not supplying water to a city of million is an act of genocide.”

The Russian president compared the attacks on Russia with attacks on Ukraine, saying, as soon as we make a move, do something in response – noise, clamor, crackle for the whole universe.

In a statement in November, Ukrenergo acknowledged that the race to restore power to homes is being hampered by “strong winds, rain and sub-zero temperatures.”

The attacks on the country’s energy grid are considered genocide by a top Ukrainian official. Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Andriy Kostin made the comments while speaking to the BBC last month.

First Christmas or Hanukkah: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s First Arrival at the Commision Committee on Climate Change and the Ukraine War

A European Union cap on natural gas prices is set to be announced, the latest measure to deal with an energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak makes his first appearance as prime minister before the Commons Liaison Committee, where the Ukraine war and other global issues are discussed. Sunak met members of a U.K.-led European military force in Latvia on Monday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will hold virtual talks sometime this month, according to Russian news reports.

Ukrainians and Russians are celebrating their first Christmas or Hanukkah since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine in late February.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Dec. 13 it made an agreement with Ukraine’s government to send nuclear safety and security experts to each of the country’s nuclear power plants.

A 65 person prisoner exchange resulted in the freed of an American. Suedi Murekezi told ABC News he spent weeks in a basement, where he was tortured, and months in a prison in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine.

More sanctions on Russia were approved by EU lawmakers. The aid package followed pledges earlier in the week from dozens of countries and global institutions to support more than $1 billion in winter relief funds for Ukraine, helping the country with power, heat, food and medical supplies.

How Russian society has fought the GRU cyberattacks: How many innocent civilians did you kill in a Russian prisoner’s jail?

The director of the Defense Priorities think tank says that if you mess with the human body, all sorts of systems are out of whack. It is not only inconvenient, it is an enormous economic cost. It is an effort to show that the government cannot protect the civilian population adequately.

Menon notes that every one of his comments could just as easily apply to the cyberattacks on the country’s internet that took place five years prior, such as NotPetya, which was released by Russia’s GRU hackers. He says the goal is the same even though it’s different in the details. “Demoralizing and punishing civilians.”

At the time, Putin insisted his forces were embarking on a “special military operation” — a term suggesting a limited campaign that would be over in a matter of weeks.

Yet the war has also fundamentally upended Russian life — rupturing a post-Soviet period in which the country pursued, if not always democratic reforms, then at least financial integration and dialogue with the West.

Draconian laws passed since February have outlawed criticism of the military or leadership. According to a leading independent monitoring group 45% of people who are jailed for demonstrating against the war are women.

Lengthy prison sentences have been meted out to high profile opposition voices on charges of “discrediting” the Russian army by questioning its conduct or strategy.

There is a growing list of “non-desirable” organizations intended to damage their reputation among the Russian public.

Even Russia’s most revered human rights group, 2022’s Nobel Prize co-recipient Memorial, was forced to stop its activities over alleged violations of the foreign agents law.

The state has also vastly expanded Russia’s already restrictive anti-LGBT laws, arguing the war in Ukraine reflects a wider attack on “traditional values.”

For now, repressions remain targeted. Some of the laws are not enforced. Should the moment arise, the measures are meant to crush wider dissent.

Leading independent media outlets and a handful of vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to shut down or relocate abroad when confronted with new “fake news” laws that criminalized contradicting the official government line.

Restrictions extend to internet users as well. In March, American social media giants were banned. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict.

Technical workarounds such as VPNs and Telegram still offer access to Russians seeking independent sources of information. But state media propaganda now blankets the airwaves favored by older Russians, with angry TV talk shows spreading conspiracies.

Putin’s Cold War and the Ruling of Russia: Are Ukrainians Probing Moscow’s Nuclear Successes and Implications for Europe?

Many perceived government opponents left in the war’s early days because of concerns of persecution.

In September, Putin ordered 300,000 additional troops to be deployed, prompting hundreds of thousands of Russian men to flee to border states in an attempt to avoid the draft.

Putin said it was a good way to clean Russian society of traitors and spies. Russian officials have suggested stripping those who left the country of their passports. There are questions as to whether Russia can thrive without the best of its people.

Some countries that have taken in the Russians are expecting their economies to grow despite the fact that Russians remain a sensitive issue for some former Soviet republics.

The central bank of Russia, which jacked up interest rates to 20% after the invasion, was a stabilizing force. So was the need for factories to increase production of military goods and replace items that had been imported from the West.

President Putin believes that Europe will blink first when it comes to imposing sanctions on Russia, as Europeans start to be frustrated over the rising cost of energy. He announced a five-month ban on oil exports to countries that abide by the price cap, a move likely to make the pain more acute in Europe.

The government’s tone towards Russia’s military campaign hasn’t changed. The Defense Ministry gives daily briefings about their successes on the ground. Putin, too, repeatedly assures that everything is “going according to plan.”

Yet the sheer length of the war — with no immediate Russian victory in sight — suggests Russia vastly underestimated Ukrainians’ willingness to resist.

Russian troops have proven unable to conquer Ukraine’s capital Kyiv or the second city of Kharkiv. In November, the city of Kherson was abandoned as a result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russian forces have been shelling the city.

Russia’s illegal annexation of four territories of Ukraine following unrecognized referendums in September has only underscored Moscow’s problems: it hasn’t been able to establish full control over the lands it now claims as its own.

The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. Western estimates place those figures much higher.

Putin’s Russia Promise in the Middle East: After a Year of War in Ukraine, Russia has Made Good on an Overdue Commitment

A refugee crisis has arisen as Ukrainians flee the conflict in their homeland and many Russian men fail to join the military. After decades of official neutrality, Finland and Sweden are pursuing membership in NATO.

As Europe eliminates Russian oil and gas, India has doubled down on buying Russian oil at bargain prices. And India continues to place orders for Russian-made weapons.

Putin’s speech in effect made good on an overdue commitment: the Kremlin repeatedly delayed and then ultimately canceled last year’s address amid a trickle of bad news from the battlefield in Ukraine.

The big press conference, which allows the Russian leader to handle questions from mostly pro-Kremlin media, was tabled until 2023.

The Kremlin has given no reason for the delays. The Russian leader has not been sharing good news in the last 10 months and many think he has run out of good news.

America has done this before. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far, the Soviet Union’s position shifted in a matter of days, ultimately accepting an outcome that favored the West. Had “red lines” thinking been in vogue, America might well have accepted an inferior compromise that weakened its security and credibility.

In the year after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Western democracies punished Moscow by cutting back on Russian oil and gas as well as sending unprecedented amounts of weaponry to help the country defend itself.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that his country won’t sell oil to anyone who abides by the price ceiling. “In relation to this, Russia will voluntarily reduce production by 500,000 barrels per day in March. This will contribute to the restoration of market relations.”

The futures prices for the global benchmark crude jumped on the news Friday morning as traders anticipated a tightening of global supply.

Russian Urals crude traded at a discount to Brent crude of $28 a barrel Friday morning. Over the past few months, India and China have snapped up cheap oil from Moscow, just as the EU — once Russia’s biggest customer for crude — has ended all imports.

The International Energy Agency stated last month it expected global demand to surge by 1.9 million barrels a day to reach a new high of 101.7 million barrels a day, with China accounting for half of the increase.

The European Commission will work together on the problem of reconstruction of Ukraine’s nuclear assets and military arsenals after the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 downing

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a surprise Europe tour, meeting leaders in London, Paris and Brussels, and reiterating his call for allies to send fighter jets to Ukraine.

Biden’s address follows his surprise visit to Ukraine’s capital Kyiv Monday — a move seen in Moscow as both provocative and proof that, in Ukraine, Russia is fundamentally fighting a proxy war with the United States.

There’s “strong indication” Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the go-ahead to supply anti-aircraft weapons to separatists in Ukraine, according to the international team investigating the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014.

The group will carry out a “legal, financial, economic and political analysis” to assess this possibility, the Swedish government said in a statement Tuesday. The EU Council is made up of the bloc’s political priorities, with Sweden currently holding the rotating presidency.

The statement added that part of this work would involve obtaining a “clearer picture” of where Russian state-owned assets are located and their value.

Diplomats from EU countries are meeting Wednesday to establish the remit for the group. They will give the green light for it to begin its work once that is decided. The group will be chaired by Anders Ahnlid, director-general of Sweden’s National Board of Trade.

More than $300 billion in Russian central bank assets could potentially be used to rebuild Ukraine according to a senior EU official.

The European Union is also working on a tenth package of sanctions against Russia. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said on Wednesday that the EU would use trade bans and export controls on technology to target 11 billion worth of goods.

How the Russians fought the Cold War: From NATO to the U.K., from Ukraine to the Continuum, from Syria to the Middle East

He says the Russians have lost battles because of a number of failures in their military culture and doctrine. While Petraeus says this is in many ways the first open-source war, other aspects are being fought with Cold War tactics and weapons – albeit with upgraded capabilities, drones and precision munitions.

Petraeus: I think the Biden Administration has led NATO and the rest of the western world very impressively in responding to the Russian invasion – providing enormous quantities of arms, ammunition, and other material and economic assistance. Helping in the effort to impose economic, financial and personal sanctions on Russia. I have noted that I am not a member of a political party and was very critical of the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.

Petraeus: It is not Russia. Russia has, after all, lost the Battles of Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv; failed to take the rest of Ukraine’s southern coast (not even getting through Mykolaiv, much less to the major port at Odesa).

So, the situation is essentially a stalemate at present, albeit with Russia making costly attacks in several areas, and with both sides building up forces for offensive operations expected in the late winter (likely the Russians) and spring/summer (the Ukrainians).

I think that Ukrainian forces are much more capable than the Russians in achieving the kind of combined arms effects that I described earlier and that they will be able to unhinge some of the Russian defenses. It’s not clear when we’ll see the whole thing, given the amount of time required for Ukrainian forces to receive and train the new western tanks and other systems.

Petraeus is a person. There will be several new features this year, most notably on the Ukranian side, where Western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles will be able to hit targets up to 150 kilometers away.

Perhaps most notably, of course, we see a war taking place, for the first time, in a context that includes the widespread presence of smart phones, internet connectivity, and social media and other internet sites.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

The Unmanned Army of Russia – a real challenge for the military and the military-industrial complex in the Cold War. The challenges of the 21st century

And there would incomparably greater numbers of vastly more capable unmanned systems (some remotely piloted, others operating according to algorithms) in every domain – not just in the air, but also at sea, sub-sea, on the ground, in outer space, and in cyberspace, and operating in swarms, not just individually!

In the Cold War days it was said, “if it can be seen, it can be hit; if it can be hit, it can be killed.” In those days, we didn’t have the capabilities needed to fully “operationalize” that adage. In the future, however, just about everything – certainly every platform, base and headquarters – will be seen and thus be susceptible to being hit and destroyed (unless there are substantial defenses and hardening of those assets).

We have to take innumerable actions to transform our forces and systems. We must deter future conflict by ensuring that there are no questions about our capabilities or our willingness to employ them – and also by doing everything possible to ensure that competition among great powers does not turn into conflict among them.

The description of NATO suffering from “brain death” by French President Macron in the late 18th century was more than a bit premature, thanks to Putin.

All of the above, and more, by Petraeus. The list is long, including poor campaign design; wholly inadequate training (what were they doing for all those months they were deployed on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine?); poor command, control, and communications; inadequate discipline (and a culture that condones war crimes and abuse of local populations); poor equipment (exemplified by turrets blowing off of tanks when fires ignite in them); insufficient logistic capabilities; inability to achieve combined arms effects (to employ all ground and air capabilities effectively together); inadequate organizational architecture; lack of a professional noncommissioned officer corps; a top-down command system that does not promote initiative at lower levels and pervasive corruption that undermines every aspect of their military – and the supporting military-industrial complex.

Not at all by Petraeus. Russia is a nuclear superpower and has enormous military capacity as well as enormous energy, mineral and agricultural blessings. It has a population that is almost double that of Europe’s next largest country, Germany and Turkey.

What does the Ukrainian population really need in a war against the Russians? (Implications for the future of the Ukraine and for the development of weapons systems and vehicles)

The leader of it still embraces grievances and extreme revanchist views that undermine his decision-making.

Bergen: You know the observation sometimes attributed to Stalin: “Quantity has a quality all its own.” Russia has a far bigger population than Ukraine: Will that make a critical difference to the Ukraine war over the long term?

As many as 300,000 new recruits and 100,000 to 50,000 more mobilized troops are being sent to the front, according to an estimate. And that is not trivial – because quantity does, indeed, matter.

Ukrainians are aware of what they are fighting for, and it is not clear that many of the Russian soldiers are from ethnic and sectarian minorities.

And the Ukrainians also have demonstrated a very impressive ability to learn how to employ new weapons systems and vehicles much more rapidly than anyone anticipated, as they want to master new capabilities as quickly as is possible and get back to the fight.

To be sure, there have been times when I have felt that we should have decided to provide various capabilities (e.g., HIMARS, longer-range precision munitions, tanks, etc.) sooner than we have.

Ukraine is going to have to transition from eastern bloc aircraft to western ones eventually. There just aren’t any more MiGs to provide to them, and they reportedly have more pilots than aircraft at this point.

So, we might as well begin the process of transition, noting that it will take a number of months, regardless, to train pilots and maintenance personnel. All that said, again, I think the Administration has done a very impressive job and proven to be the indispensable nation in this particular situation – with important ramifications for other situations around the world.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

How do mercenaries end their war? What do Ukrainians really think about the invasion of Taiwan over a large body of water?

The force that Putin puts in the meat grinder of the toughest battles is the quasi-private Wagner Group. Do you think mercenaries are a tactic?

Petraeus: What Russia has done with what are, in essence, mercenaries, as you note, is somewhat innovative – but also essentially inhumane, as it entails throwing soldiers (many of them former convicts) into battle as cannon fodder, and with little, if any, concern for their survival.

These are not the tactics or practices that, at the end of the day, foster development of well-trained, disciplined, capable, and cohesive units that have trust in their leaders and soldiers on their left and right.

What lessons do the Ukrainian people have for the Chinese if they were to stage a large scale invasion of Taiwan over a very large body of water? Is the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea navy, changing how the Chinese think?

If the target of the operation has a population that is willing to fight for it’s survival, as well as major powers that will be supportive, this would be more than enough.

Petraeus: I believe that is the case. This is the first war in which smartphones and social media have been so widely available and also so widely employed. The result is unprecedented transparency and an extraordinary amount of information available – all through so-called “open sources.”

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

The Scranton Expansion: What is going on in Ukraine? An update on the U.S. Army, Russian Army, and the Iraq War

Given the limitations of the professional capabilities of the Russian forces and their demonstrated inability to generate a combined arms effect, there does not seem to be a particularly innovative new plan.

Bergen: In 2003, at the beginning of the Iraq War, you famously asked a rhetorical question: “Tell me how this ends?” For the war in Ukraine: How does this end?

Petraeus. The war is unsustainable on both the battlefield and the home front, when Putin acknowledges that it has been heavily impacted by the Russian economy, and I think it will end in a negotiated resolution.

On a recent day in January, the Army said they churned out an average of 11,000 shells a month at the plant. That may seem like a lot, but the Ukrainian military often fires that many shells over just a few days.

The Scranton plant is getting a lot of new defense spending from the Pentagon so they are going to make a huge expansion. It’s investing in new high-tech machinery, hiring a few dozen additional workers and will eventually shift to a 24/7 schedule of constant production.

Over the last year, it seems like it is ramping up. As more modern equipment is brought in, it will ramp up even further, according to Todd Smith, senior director of General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems.

The Pentagon has allocated roughly $3 billion alone to buy munitions overseas from allies and to ramp up production at home. The money will go toward the production of 155 millimeter shells, which have become a staple of the war.

Bush told CNN the Army intends to double the production of Javelin anti-tank missiles, make roughly 33% more Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) surface-to-surface medium-range missiles a year, and produce each month a minimum of 60 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles – which were “almost not in production at all,” according to Bush.

As the war in Ukraine stretches into its second year, the US and its allies face an acute problem – Ukraine is burning through ammunition faster than the US and NATO can produce them.

Bush said that many allies in Europe are increasing their orders for US military equipment, so that is adding to demand for our production. Ukraine’s need “changes month to month,” he added, making it less predictable than foreign military sales which are typically known well in advance.

On top of that, the US has a lot of work to do in rebuilding its own stockpiles, which the war in Ukraine has left dangerously low in the eyes of some experts.

Jones also told CNN that CSIS war games showed in a Pacific conflict, the US runs out of “key long range munitions,” like long-range anti-ship missiles, in “less than a week of the war.”

Bush agreed that long-term contracts would allow the Defense Department to have a more efficient supplier base. He said a seven-year contract could allow industry to plan their workforce long-term instead of working year to year. Building out that workforce is crucial as more plants and more shifts could eventually mean more jobs.

“No defense company in their right mind is going to start producing munitions if by the end of every fiscal year, the Marine Corps, the Navy, the Air Force takes what it had allotted in budget and moves it to a different pet platform or program,” said Jones of CSIS.

If all goes according to plan, in a year production rates in the US will be much higher than they are now, Bush said. And while the hope is that the conflict in Ukraine is over long before then, Bush is confident the US military and industrial base would be ready for whatever comes next.

The United States and its allies are steadfast in their commitment to support Ukraine, and their people largely accept the enormous costs of the fight. The political resistance in the US has been limited to a few people on the far right and far left. As the war goes on, questions will become more common. As Representative Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the House, a Republican and a strong supporter of Ukraine, has warned, “There should be no blank check on anything.”

Gen. Mark Milley is chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “The battlefield, as difficult as it is and as bloody as it is … is something that’s going to play a very major factor in both President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy and President [Vladimir] Putin’s calculations as to whether or not to go to the negotiating table … and under what conditions.”

“This is something that leads me to the question – for whom do we document all these crimes?” The head of the Center for Civil Liberties told us. “Because I’m not a historian, I’m a human rights lawyer, and we document human pain in order sooner or later to have all these Russians … brought to justice.”

Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu: “Wearing lessons from Ukraine” and the “eternal” fate of their family car

Speaking to NPR’s Leila Fadel, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said his country is learning lessons from the war in Ukraine and keeping a wary eye on China.

“They have expansionist motivation. They want to continue to expand their sphere of influence. They want to increase their power. “If they are allowed to continue, then they will continue to march,” he said.

They tried to flee in the first days of the war, but the family car was shelled, Natalia believes, by Russian forces. Her husband was killed, along with her 6-year-old nephew, Maxim. Vova survived the attack but was hospitalized for months with seven bullets in his body.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/18/1157820509/ukraine-russia-war-anniversary

The Indian–Russian Connection during the Cold War and the India–U.S. Relationships in Moscow: From the Indian Embassy to the Indian Consulate

Danny Hajek produced and edited the audio for this story. Additional editing and production help came from Carol Klinger. They assisted with translation and reporting.

S. Jaishankar, Modi’s top diplomat, traveled to Moscow in November to stand with Sergei Lavrov, who praised their countries’ relationship as “time-tested”.

India was still under British colonial rule when Russia opened its first consulate there in 1900, in Mumbai. The relations took off during the Cold War.

“It started out as strategic sympathy for the Soviet Union, in the backdrop of India getting independence from the British. So it’s an anti-colonial experience, anti-imperialism,” says Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan, a political scientist at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. The Cold War became anti-west and anti-U.S. as a result.

Modi has called for a cease-fire in Ukraine, without condemning Russia’s attacks. Some of his political opponents think that that doesn’t go far enough, and point to India’s actions rather than its words.

Praveen Chakravarty, a political economist affiliated with the opposition Indian National Congress party, says India’s actions so far do not reflect remorse or even mild criticism of events in Ukraine. “If anything, it seems to aid and abet.”

India has one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. (The IMF forecasts 6.8% growth for India this year, compared to just 1.6% for the United States.) By 2030, India is forecast to be the third-largest economy in the world, behind the U.S. and China.

India buys more oil from the Middle East than Russia. Its Russian share has gone up a lot. Russia was imported 1.2 million barrels of crude by India in December. That is 33 times more than a year ago. The share of Russian crude in India’s oil imports rose from just 2% in February to 28% in January.

Indian officials have defended those purchases, saying that it’s their job to find bargains for their citizens. And Jaishankar, the foreign minister, has suggested it’s hypocritical of wealthier Westerners to ask them not to.

“Europe has managed to reduce its imports [of Russian gas] while doing it in a manner that is comfortable,” Jaishankar told an Austrian TV channel last month. You’re so focused on your population because you have a percapita income of 60,000 euros. The population is at 2,000 dollars per capita. I do not have the funds to pay high prices for oil.

Last April, Jaishankar visited the White House for a virtual summit between Modi and President Biden. There, U.S. officials told their Indian counterparts they understand India’s energy needs and were hoping only that India would not “accelerate” Russian oil purchases.

Washington may have changed it’s mind due to the fact that India is buying Russian crude at deep discounts, something the West can’t do because of sanctions. Then India refines that same Russian oil and exports it onward to the U.S. and Europe. The West does not get its hands dirty when it gets Russian oil.

Some of the Soviet-made planes and cannons are being replaced with French, Israeli and American versions. Updating India’s arsenal takes time and money, according to Pande.

“Let’s just go to the [Indian] Air Force. Flying coffins are the term for most of the Sukhois and MiGs. Very often Indian pilots die when they are testing, or flying, those,” says Aparna Pande, a political scientist at the Hudson Institute in Washington. “So India knows they need to be replaced.”

According to Pande, Indian defense experts might have been the only ones who didn’t think that Russian tanks would fall apart inUkraine. They’ve been unhappy with Russian equipment for a long time.

“Let’s say my entire apartment had only IKEA furniture, and now I decide, ‘OK now I want to change it, and I want West Elm.’ I cannot just replace one chair. Pande said that he had to change his entire dining table and chairs. “So what India has done [in terms of updating its weapons] is piecemeal. Russian-made items are still used in those big ticket items. So that’s the change which has to happen, and this is what will reduce the Russian influence.”

Russia and Ukraine are not India’s biggest foreign policy preoccupation. It’s China. Both countries share a border that’s more than 2000 miles long. Satellite imagery indicates that China may be encroaching on Indian territory. Soldiers clashed there in June 2020, and again this past December.

Biden administration officials say that they understand why India hasn’t condemned Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, and that they’re willing to grant the country a lot of space.

Putin’s visit to Ukraine during the last remaining nuclear arms treaty: Address of a mass rally in Moscow on Wednesday, March 6th, 2026

Putin stressed that Russia isn’t withdrawing from the treaty, but he said that he was suspending Russia’s participation.

Putin acknowledged Russia’s significant losses in the war and called on those present to stand for a moment of silence in their memory. The Russian leader promised social support packages for families of the fallen.

In his address, Putin omitted any discussion of Russia’s failure in the early days of the war to overthrow the Ukrainian government and its losses on the battlefield.

New Start was extended till 2026 by the time it was signed. It caps the number of strategic nuclear warheads that Russia and the U.S. can deploy. The two countries have the vast majority of all deployable warheads.

During the Pandemic of 2020, the regular inspections were put on hold to make sure neither side is cheating. Russia postponed talks to restart those inspections, as relations between Moscow and Washington continued to deteriorate over Ukraine.

“The U.S. and NATO openly say their goal is to see Russia’s strategic defeat. The Russian leader said they were prepared to visit our military bases if something didn’t happen.

Should the U.S. perform new nuclear tests, Putin instructed his military and civilian atomic energy agency to be prepared to test additional nuclear weapons.

The US Secretary of State stated that Russia’s decision was “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible”. The U.S. accuses Russia of breaching the last remaining nuclear arms treaty.

Putin said the West had a moral and spiritual collapse that threatened the children of Russia. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarch Kirill, was seated front-row center in the hall.

The Russian leader again equated Ukraine’s “neo Nazi” government with Nazi Germany, and said Russia was defending itself just as the Soviet Union defended its territory during World War II.

Today’s address is the beginning of a series of connected and choreographed events, starting with a session of parliament on Wednesday, when Putin will address a mass rally.

Putin then assembled his National Security Council for a televised session to discuss the independence issue — now famous for the image of the Russian leader holding court across a vast hallway to consult with, in theory, his closest advisors.

Putin said that the Russian economy and system of government had been stronger than their US and EU counterparts.

The era of windfall profits from the oil and gas market for Russia is over, according to Janis Kluge, an analyst with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

The ruble is at its weakest level against the dollar in a year. High inflation can be caused by the currency’s weakness. A recent survey by a Russian think tank shows that most businesses don’t know how they’ll grow in the current economic uncertainty.

Russia’s economic output duly contracted by 2.1% last year, according to a preliminary estimate from the government. The hit was not as big as expected. Some economists thought sanctions would cause a 10% or 15% contraction.

One reason for Russia’s unexpected pluck was its push toward self-sufficiency following Putin’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Through a policy known as “Fortress Russia,” the government boosted domestic food production and policymakers forced banks to build up their reserves. That created a degree of “durability,” said Ash at Chatham House.

“It’s a question of natural resources,” Sergey Aleksashenko, Russia’s former deputy minister of finance, said at an event last month hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank. That meant the economy experienced a decline, but “not a collapse,” he added.

Russia’s government relied on the oil and gas sector for 45% of its budget in 2021. As it plans to maximize defense spending, lower revenues inevitably mean trade-offs. Spending plans for 2023 finalized in December involved a decrease in expenditure on housing and health care, as well as a category that includes public infrastructure.

Finding new buyers for processed oil products, which are also subject to new embargoes and price caps, won’t be easy either. China and India have their own network of refineries and prefer to buy crude, noted Ben McWilliams, an energy consultant at Bruegel.

Russian Economy in the Light of the Cold War: Automakers, Factory Sales, and the Challenge of Putin Embedding Ukraine into the Next Millennium

The Russia Institute at King’s College London believes that any energy resources obtained will be spent on military needs.

“Whether the economy shrinks or expands in 2023 will be determined by developments in the war,” Tatiana Orlova, an economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. She noted that there are shortages of workers who are tied to military service.

Sectors that rely on imports have been particularly vulnerable. Domestic car makers such as Avtovaz, which manufactures the iconic Ladas, have struggled with shortages of key components and materials.

Russia’s auto industry was already weakened after companies such as Volkswagen

            (VLKAF), Renault

            (RNLSY), Ford

            (F) and Nissan

            (NSANF) halted production and began to sell their local assets last year. Chinese firms have stepped up their presence, part of a broader trend. Even so, sales of new cars dropped 63% year-over-year in January, according to the Association of European Businesses.

Across sectors, firms are struggling to plan for the future. A survey of more than 1000 Russian businesses found that about half of them don’t think about growth and don’t plan on increasing production in the next two years. The group said this contributed to a high risk of “long-term stagnation of the Russian economy.”

Putin is likely to continue his policy of subsuming Ukraine, due to his ideological commitment. She said that his war chest is likely to diminish.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/business/russia-economy-ukraine-anniversary/index.html

Why Russia hasn’t ruled Europe after the Second World War? It’s not Normal, but Europeans have a problem. The role of the Russians

“In normal times, we might have said that the population would protest against that,” Sharafutdinova said. These are not normal times.

According to the World Health Organization, more than 8 million people have fledUkraine, making it the largest movement of people in the European Region since the Second World War. Many have been relocated by Russia. Others have put a strain on the resources in Poland and Germany.

A 21st century war in Europe — led by a nuclear power — is pushing the world toward realignment. It has caused NATO, the EU, and the U.N. to take sides in ways that led to heightening tensions and diplomatic shifts. Turkey, despite being a NATO member, has increased trade with Russia since the start of the war and has objected to Sweden and Finland joining the alliance.

NPR’s Will Chase, Alex Leff, Pam Webster, Desiree F. Hicks and Nishant Dahiya contributed to this report. The work by Selyukh and Jin builds on previous work.