The Impact of January Storms on the Southern Meteorology and Weather System: A CNN Weather Brief Analysis of a Northeastern Hurricane

As the climate crisis accelerates and further research continues to establish its connection with tornadoes, more people will be vulnerable to the most severe consequences of extreme weather events. And experts say cities shouldn’t put off adaptation plans any longer, and that they should use available climate research and treat them as part of the larger emergency response system.

Science is racing to answer questions about climate change as severe weather events intensify and the economy weakens.

He said to think of a pair of dice. You can change the value of one die to make it more likely to get the value 12 and also to make it have two sixes. Although you can’t immediately attribute that value of 12 to the change you made, you just altered the probability of that event occurring.

Gensini said that the climate system is similar to what it is now because of the greenhouse gasses being pumped into the atmosphere and the changes the system will make.

The last few decades have seen tornado frequencies increase in parts of the southern Midwest and Southeast, but decrease in areas of the central and southern Great Plains.

CNN releases a version of the article on Mondays in the weekly weather newsletter, CNN Weather Brief. You can sign up to receive them every week when there is a significant storm.

January 23, 23rd, will be remembered more for tornadoes and severe weather than for snow and ice in the eastern part of the country. January is not typically a severe weather month, but this year was a big one.

If you combine the average number of January tornadoes, this year is more than triple the norm, and it will go down slightly once all reports have been surveyed.

The storm center’s warning coordination meteorologist explained that repetitive cold fronts are important in helping to develop storms.

Much of the South and Southeast ran five to 10 degrees above normal for the month of January, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward, resulting in more instability and ripe conditions for tornado development.

Houston is having its second-warmest January on record, and was also hit hard by tornadoes less than a week ago.

How Will the Weather Predict the Future? The Case of Florida and Louisiana During the Phase of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria

We should know how the spring is going to evolve with some certainty. He said that we can’t, unfortunately. Sometimes we have a busy season and then a quiet spring season, and other times we have a quiet season and then a busy one.

“Summer might be coming down a little bit, and winter might be coming up a little bit. They are competing with each other. The numbers overall might be similar, but there may be some subtle changes in the locations that we are examining very closely.

Studies like this one offer important information about how to protect people from the effects of climate change, says Sobel. Where people live has an effect on how that housing looks. Florida has seen the fastest population growth of any state in the country right now. The financial industry, insurance industry and homeowners all need to adapt to Hurricane risk according to him.

Another sobering trend was also found by Lin and her colleagues. It’s not likely that two storms in quick succession will hit the same place, although these disasters were more likely during the second half of the twentieth century.

When sequential storms do happen, it’s deadly, like when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the Gulf Coast in 2005 or when Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria hit Puerto Rico, Florida and Texas in quick succession in 2017.

That’s bad news for multiple reasons. “Communities need to recover from disasters,” says Lin. If people are being hit by flooding and wind damage over and over, there’s less time to recover.

It could also overwhelm the government’s emergency response. That happened in 2017, when the Federal Emergency Management Agency struggled to respond to three major storms at the same time, and millions of people were left waiting for basic assistance with food and shelter.

The storm system that brought several feet of snow to parts of California will move eastward Wednesday eventually triggering the severe outbreak expected on Thursday.

There’s a chance of tornadoes and damaging winds up to 80 mph in parts of Texas, northern Louisiana and southwest Arkansas on Thursday.

The storms will strengthen as they are formed in central and eastern Texas on Thursday, due to warm air to the east. Temperatures have been near record high levels for this time of year across the Southeast this week and this warm air will add fuel for the storms.

Baton Rouge is set to set a temperature record before the weather starts to get bad. Both Houston and San Antonio are close to record-breaking temperatures and could reach 86 and 88F, respectively.

As a result, these storms are likely to be strong supercells which can cause tornadoes and large hail.

The threat of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes increases overnight into Friday morning as the storm moves into central Mississippi and western Tennessee.

The rains are predicted to be 3 to 6 inches with the potential for higher amounts. This will lead to multiple localized flash flooding events.

America will probably get more killer tornado- and hail-spawning supercells as the world warms, according to a new study that also warns the lethal storms will edge eastward to strike more frequently in the more populous Southern states, like Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee.

The “Finger of God” whoppers are the ultimate storms, so-called “supercells” that are the dominant producers of significant tornadoes and hail, according to the lead author. Supercells have a rotating updraft of wind that can last for hours.

Warming Fueled Supercells Will Hit the Southern U-S More Frequently a Study Warns Right Now: A Prediction Before the Mississippi Tornado

The simulations used to predict what will happen by the end of the century were done using different levels of global carbon pollution. But Ashley said that stormier future seems like it’s already here.

“The data that I’ve seen has persuaded me that we are in this experiment and living it right now,” Ashley said in an interview three days before the EF-4 tornado killed more than 20 people in Mississippi on Friday. The longer term is actually happening right now.

Ashley and others said although the Mississippi tornado fits the projected pattern, it was a single weather event, which is different than climate projections over many years and a large area.

A professor at Northern Illinois University and a tornado expert are keeping a close eye on the Mid-South, in case another supercell blow up on Friday.

Past studies have been unable to forecast supercells and tornadoes in future climate simulations because they are small-scale events, especially tornadoes, that global computer models can’t see. The smaller computer models that were used compensated for the reduced computing power with two years of simulations and crunching data.

Three scientists who aren’t connected to the study said it makes sense. One of them, Pennsylvania State University tornado scientist Paul Markowski, called it a promising advance because it explicitly simulated storms, compared to past research that only looked at general environments favorable to supercells.

In March and April, the simulation says there will be 6 more supercells than there are in March and April. The percentage points drops in June and July.

In the mid-South, including Rolling Fork, the study projects supercell activity peaking two hours later, from 6 to 9 p.m. instead of 4 to 7 p.m. That means more nighttime supercells.

“If you want a disaster, create a supercell at night where you can’t go outside and visually confirm the threat” so people don’t take it as seriously, Gensini said.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/03/28/1166422313/warming-fueled-supercells-will-hit-the-southern-u-s-more-often-a-study-warns

The Cap of Storm Brews and Grows as a Game With Two Dice-Types of Doughnuts in the Great Plains

The hot dry air from places like New Mexico puts a stronger “cap” on where storms would normally brew when air masses collide in spring time. storms in the Great Plains can’t boil over as much because of the cap. The pressure builds as the weather front moves east, leading to supercells forming later and farther eastward, Gensini and Ashley said.

It’s similar to playing a game with a pair of dice. One of those dice makes the odds worse because of more people in the way and the other is loaded with more supercells, increasing the odds of tornadoes and hail.